Dan Plaster
“We live one day at a time and scratch where it itches.” Darrell Royal, University of Texas Head Coach 57-76
Hello Rider fans!!! This quote by the Hall of Fame head coach of the Longhorns sums up how the playoffs feel in the locker room. Summer is now a memory, the weather has turned and snow is starting to accumulate. This is the harbinger of one thing in Canada, CFL playoffs.
While the Eastern Semi-Final won’t have the echoes of CFL playoffs past with the B.C. Lions making the crossover and facing the Montreal Alouettes, technically, the Leos and Als have a more recent playoff history than the Riders and Esks. Montreal defeated B.C. in the 2009 Eastern Semi-Final 56-18; the last time the Riders and Eskimos met in the post-season was on November 7th 2004 in Edmonton with the Green and White sneaking out a 14-8 victory. The year before that Western Semi-Final win, the Eskimos advanced to the Grey Cup by knocking off the Riders in the West Final 30-23.
The Riders and Eskimos have only seen each other in the playoffs three times in the last 20 years. Before that, between 1989 and 1993, these two saw each other in four of five post seasons. So for recent history, there really isn’t any, but there is storied history because between 1950 and 1986, they met 15 times in the playoffs.
I honestly have no more to really bring up between a pair of teams that are now facing each other for the fourth time in eight weeks. If you want to get as simple as possible, the first to 24 points wins. The winning team scored 24 points in all three of the match-ups this season. It does make sense though, these are great defences and with the pop-gun offences this season, 24 is the magic number.
Everywhere else, the same things hold true, the Eskimos have had one of the most dramatic bounce back seasons that any team has ever had. This is all due to their head coach, Chris Jones. The defensive guru has the top defence and offence in the CFL and other than the banged up Mike Reilly, they are firing on all cylinders.
We will see a lot of Matt Nichols at quarterback. The former Eastern Washington Eagle has had a rough road in the CFL. He broke his leg and dislocated his ankle in a game against the Toronto Argonauts on November 11th, 2012 and then he tore his ACL in a preseason game against the Riders last season when he tried to track down Carlos Thomas after throwing a pick to the Riders defensive back. Nichols was tied up with defensive end Kenny Rowe when his knee buckled. It’s been a long road back for the 27 year old and now he has a chance to make a difference for Edmonton when it counts. If Nichols gets the ball into their trio of offensive weapons, Adarius Bowman and Fred Stamps as well as, running back Jon Whyte, he will do just fine.
Defensively, this is a great group, but where they have been most dangerous is scoring against the opposing offence. They are tops in the CFL with seven defensive touchdowns, tack on what the offence does with those turnovers, it’s a league high 141 points (28.7% of their points for). If you tack on the fact that they have 22 more big plays than given up, the formula is simple for Edmonton, force turnovers, make big plays and don’t give any up.
Eskimo Fast Facts:
– They are the best fourth quarter team with 171 points for and only 93 given up.
– Tied for the best home record at 7-2, but led the league with 272 points scored at Commonwealth Stadium.
– Tops in big plays (+20 rush, +30 passing and returns) with 59.
– Best Red Zone defence with just 21 touchdowns given up in 47 attempts.
– Chris Jones is 1-12 in coaches challenges and 0-6 in DPI challenges.
– Neither Reilly nor Nichols has a playoff start. Reilly attempted just one playoff pass (November 11, 2012 against BC).
– Even though the Eskimos are tops in the CFL with 20 interceptions, they are just a +1 in turnover ratio.
– They gave up just one non-offensive touchdown this season (league best).
Other than Darian Durant (and that is an enormous piece), the Riders are as healthy as they have been all season. We will see the starting front five of the offensive line and the whole defence is intact. The defence is the key, for the Riders to win, this unit needs to come up with one of their best games in over two months. They will do it by getting pressure on the quarterback and creating turnovers. If the defence can get the offence in good situations and give them a short field to work with (the Riders scored just one touchdown when they had to drive 90+ yards) good things, even great things will happen.
It starts with the all-star trio of John Chick, Tearrius George and Ricky Foley (yes, I’m putting Foley in that group) because if they can keep their regular season sack rate up (39 between the three), it doesn’t matter if it’s Matt Nichols, Mike Reilly or the second coming of Warren Moon, it will be a long cold afternoon for the Eskimos. There is a catch; they have to have a patient and controlled pass rush to control running back John Whyte and the feet of either Nichols or Reilly. Stay in their rush lanes and don’t be selfish.
Offensively, I want to start by giving one of the most underrated pass catchers in the CFL, Rob Bagg huge props. To overcome all of the setbacks, grab his first ever Western All-Star nod and lead the CFL in Canadian receiving yards is one of the more remarkable stories in the league this season. To top it off, he did it from the field side wide receiver position; this is a spot where you are expected to be more of a blocker than a number one or two option for the quarterback. You won’t hear much from Rob because he is worried about the big picture which is making another run to the Grey Cup. This is what makes him great on the field and off.
The Riders will need Bagg, Chris Getzlaf, Weston Dressler and the rest of the receivers to have a great game, because if they do, this also means Kerry Joseph is having a great game. Joseph has done a great job leading this team during the final stages of the regular season, but the statistics don’t show it. He has completed less than 50% of his passes, thrown one more interception than touchdowns and has a QB rating of just 62.3. In comparison, Darian Durant had an 87.8 passer rating and Tino Sunseri’s was 90.6 (which is fifth in the CFL for passers with over 100 attempts). The one difference, Kerry was sacked just four times, or on 4% of his drop backs.
I’m going to dive head deep in hyperbole right now. It may have been tough to not have Darian Durant in the line-up during the regular season, but to not have him in the playoffs is monumental. The North Carolina Tar Heel is one of the best playoff quarterbacks in recent history. He doesn’t have good or great numbers in the post season, he has Hall of Fame numbers. In the seven games he played in he has a passer rating of 116.6, completing over 65% of his passes with 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions. This is Anthony Calvillo, Warren Moon and Doug Flutie type numbers and no one talks about it. I am old enough to remember the final years of Ron Lancaster and this will upset many Rider fans, but Darian Durant is a whisper away from becoming the best quarterback in Rider history.
Rider Fast Facts:
– Riders are second in turnover ratio with a +8. It isn’t the 42 forced turnovers that are amazing (tied third), it is the fact that they lost the ball just 34 times (third in CFL).
– This is a big one for this game. The Eskimos scored 9 non-offensive touchdowns this season while the Riders gave up 8 (2 pick-6’s, 5 kick return, and the goofy Ottawa punt Mickey Mouse play).
– This is still a run first team with 16 rushes of 20+ yards and a league lowest 19 pass connections of 30+ yards.
– Corey Chamblin is 5-16 on coaches challenges and 2-10 in DPI challenges.
– They have the most two-point conversions in the CFL this season with four.
– It’s been eat or be eaten on special teams this season with the most 30+ returns this season (12) but also gave up the most 30+ returns (12).
– With 61 sacks, this is the top sack unit in the CFL by a large margin this season (Edmonton was next with 55).
Five things that will be key to the Riders success this afternoon:
1. Do not give up a non-offensive touchdown and limit the big plays. These have been the keys to success for the Eskimos this season.
2. Move the ball better between the 25’s. If the Riders can put two or three long scoring drives together, it doesn’t matter if it’s a touchdown or a field goal, this will take a lot of pressure off the defence and make it easier for the offence in the latter parts of the game.
3. Adarius Bowman. Whoever has the task of covering the CFL’s top receiver will have the toughest job on the field this afternoon.
4. Health. It will be interesting to see how the Riders play now that they are fielding what is close to their opening day line-up.
5. Kerry Joseph. He doesn’t need a remarkable or great game, just keep the sheet clean and get the ball into the hands of his playmakers.
Let’s hope we chat again next week, but whatever the outcome, make sure you tune into Rider Rewind on Tuesday night to get a complete rundown of this afternoon’s Western Semi-Final and follow me on Twitter @dan_plaster. Go Riders!!!
